Retailers Nationwide Expect Increased Sales. Will Turlock Retailers See Trend?

While there are positive national economic reports in the area of retail sales and increased holiday sales projections, Turlock City Manager Roy Wasden said “It is premature for me to make any predictions for sales tax projections other than to say we may be seeing some positive signs.”

“The real test for sales tax is what we see for the 2nd Quarter (Oct, Nov, Dec) of fiscal year 2010/11,”said Wasden. “As the saying goes "Turlock First" and "Shop Turlock.”

Turlock Downtown Property Owners Association (TDPOA) Executive Director Trina Walley believes the downtown district is seeing more positive signs than negative ones in regards to economic recovery.

While Turlock Downtown has seen one of Turlock’s old-time restaurants close, Golden Hour, a new exciting one has just been approved to open, a “beer bistro” called Dust Bowl Tap Room. Some retail shops have closed down but others such as Chic Shack, Ritzy Ragz & Thingz, and Bike Works have expanded.

“Turlock Downtown’s incubator project has added shopping such as the store Eclectic Charm while also accomplishing its goal of helping businesses get started and then grow into their own location as Frost and Gurl Frenzy have recently done,” Walley said.

Downtown will be kicking off the holiday season with two special, traditional events; the Festival of Lights on November 26^th and the Lights on Parade on December 3^rd. Downtown merchants are ready to capture the potential shoppers’ attention and most important holiday purchases.

According to National Retail Federation (NRF), total 2010 holiday sales are expected to increase by about 2.3 percent while online sales are expected to increase by 11 percent.

The U.S. Census Bureau has been reporting increased retail and food services total dollars in sales recently with comparing month to previous month and year to date with previous years.

Last year’s pre-holiday shopping, the 3^rd quarter, saw $923.2 billion in total sales according to the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce. The estimate of U.S.total retail sales for the third quarter of 2010 were estimated at $978.7 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.4%) from the second quarter of 2010 and an increase of 6.0 percent (±0.5%) from the same period in 2009.

While the total retail sales for the 3^rd quarter may only have risen 6 percent but the total retail e-commerce sales for the third quarter of 2010, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes, was $41.5 billion, an increase of 4.0 percent (±1.4%) from the second quarter of 2010 and an estimated increased of 14.1 percent (±2.5%) from the same 3^rd quarter time period in 2009.

E-commerce sales in the third quarter of 2010 accounted for 4.0 percent of total sales.

Total e-commerce sales for 2009 were estimated at $134.9 billion, an increase of 2.0 percent (±1.8%) from 2008 while total retail sales in 2009 decreased 7.0 percent (±0.2%) from 2008. E-commerce sales in 2009 accounted for 3.7 percent of total sales. E-commerce sales in 2008 accounted for 3.3 percent of total sales.

Black Friday (the Friday after Thanksgiving) and Cyber Monday (the Monday after Thanksgiving) sales are looking to be more and more key for a successful retail holiday season although e-commerce sales greatly increase from around December 5th through around December 21st.

On November 23, 2010, comScore, a leader in measuring the digital world, reported holiday season retail e-commerce spending for the first 21 days of the November – December 2010 holiday season, as well as its official spending forecast for the season. For the holiday season-to-date, $9.01 billion has been spent online, marking a 13-percent increase versus the corresponding days last year.

“The beginning of the online holiday shopping season has gotten off to an extremely positive start, outperforming our earlier expectations,” said comScore chairman, Gian Fulgoni. “Despite continued high unemployment rates and other economic concerns, consumers seem to be more willing to open up their wallets this holiday season than last. While this early spending surge reflects, in part, heavy promotional activity on the part of retailers occurring earlier this season, it is nevertheless a very encouraging sign.”

The official comScore 2010 holiday season forecast is that online retail spending for the November – December period will reach $32.4 billion, representing an 11 percent gain versus year ago. This strong growth rate represents an improvement compared to last season’s 4 percent increase.

While most data supporting consumer trends are collected from major chain retailers, the sales of goods are all inclusive as they are reported through the U.S. Census Bureau.

The City of Turlock will benefit from sales tax collected from the chain stores or the “mom & pop” stores. Besides the everlasting competition between big chain stores and small businesses, both are now competing with online retailers such as Amazon.com and Ebay.com. Turlock is not able to realistically compete with even some stores in Modesto such as Best Buy or Apple, both carrying some of the most demanded merchandise, popular electronics.

The City of Turlock will also lose out on sales tax dollars even if people are shopping on Walmart.com or Target.com and get their items shipped to the local Turlock store.

NRF reported that five years after the phrase “Cyber Monday” was coined, retailers have even bigger plans for the Monday after Thanksgiving. According to Shop.org’s eHoliday Survey, conducted by BIGresearch®, nearly nine in ten (88.2%) retailers will have a special promotion for Cyber Monday, up from just 72.2 percent in 2007.

NRF also reported that gift cards are expected to emerge as winners this holiday season. According to NRF’s 2010 Gift Card Consumer Intentions and Actions survey, conducted by BIGresearch, Americans will spend an average of $145.61 on gift cards, up from $139.91 last year. Total gift card spending is expected to reach $24.78 billion. NRF’s first holiday survey, released last month, found that gift cards remain the most requested holiday gift, marking the fourth year in a row gift cards have topped consumers’ wish lists.

Online gift card sales will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 29% over the next several years, hitting $5.86 billion in 2014, research and advisory firm Javelin Strategy & Research reports.

“The online channel has become more important for gift card sales, which are continuing to expand,” says Beth Robertson, director of payments research at Javelin.

Other shopping trends include looking for deals with free shipping, along with sales and discounts.

NRF also reports a climbing trend that involves people’s mobile phones. 45 percent of 18-24 year olds will research products, shop, or purchase items on their mobile phones while one-fourth of Americans with a smart phone will follow the trend.

Though this trend is still climbing, it should act as a clear signal to retailers to vamp up mobile versions of websites and develop cell phone apps.

After browsing daily updated websites inviting multiple Turlock related visits a day such as TurlockCityNews.com, Modbee.com, Facebook.com, and Twitter.com, we found Turlock internet presence including these that seemed to stand out:

TurlockCityNews.com

Monte Vista Small Animal Hospital

Covenant Village of Turlock

Turlock Downtown
Paul’s Paint Company

Stanislaus County Fair

State Farm Insurance – Dee Hernandez

Picturesque

Angelini’s Italian Restaurant

Community Veterinary Clinic

Rapid Refill

Friends of Turlock Animal Shelter

Jon Michael Terry Photography