The California 10th Congressional District race between Incumbent U.S. Representative Jeff Denham (R-Turlock) and challenger Michael Eggman (D) has been regarded as one of the most highly observed races in the country in present and past election cycles, but recently, the district has gone from “toss-up,” to “likely Republican,” to what is now considered “safe Republican.”
At the 60-day report from the California Secretary of State, of the 294,204 CD-10 registered voters, 37.27 percent registered Democratic, while 40.03 percent were registered Republican. Those registered as American Independent accounted for 2.90 percent, followed by .01 percent registered as Americans Elect.
University of Virginia’s Center for Politics researchers Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Klondik stated the district as “safe Republican.” Stu Rothenberg, of The Rothenberg Political Report and Roll Call, labeled the seat “Republican favored.” The Cook political report shifted from calling the district “likely R” to “solid R.”
In addition to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee canceling their planned television advertising in the district, the Associated Press has taken it off their “Competitive” and “Highly Competitive” lists.
While the district has previously been competitive in terms of registration, John Burton, chairman of the California Democratic Party, stated in a prior interview from October 2013 that Denham would, “be tough to get.”