Since the 2008 Presidential Election where there was a major shift in the way campaigns reached out to audiences, social media and internet presence has been a major contributing factor to the success of candidates; the trend has perpetuated the idea and emphasis of social media as being a critical element to success in the electoral politics.
TurlockCityNews.com has also, in effort to keep its readers informed, conducted a series of polls and compiled research to gain a better understanding of the sentiments of Turlock voters.
While the research does have certain limitations, TurlockCityNews.com believes that the data shows a trending perception of the attitudes and leanings of residents. How it will translate into Election Day results on Nov. 4, we’ll all have to wait and see.
TurlockCityNews.com’s online poll is aimed toward gaining the sentiments of readers on Measure B, Mayoral candidates, and City Council candidates; we recognizes that results are by no means scientific, and there is the potential for inaccuracy due to individuals voting more than once in the poll or participating in the poll with no intention of voting in the General Election.
Results from the TurlockCityNews.com automated telephone survey conducted by Dane & Associates on Oct. 17, nearly two weeks ago, indicated that 33.5 percent of likely voters plan to vote “no,” while 36.84 percent indicated voting “yes,” 29.61 percent were undecided. The total number of respondents was 304 registered likely voters; the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Results from the TurlockCityNews.com online poll, as of Thursday night, on Measure B, the seven-year half-cent road sales tax, indicate 27.8 percent of survey respondents would vote “yes,” while 64.6 percent indicated they would vote “no;” 7.2 percent were undecided. The total number of respondents was 223.
Measure B requires the approval of a two-thirds majority of voters or 66.7 percent to pass.
The Turlock Mayoral candidate results from the prior automated telephone survey also indicated Gary Soiseth as having a lead with 39.93, while 27.21 percent indicated they would vote for Mike Brem, and 32.86 percent were undecided. The total number of respondents was 304 registered likely voters; the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Out of 170 respondents for the TurlockCityNews.com online poll on the Mayoral race, 22.2 percent indicated intention to vote for Brem, while 73.2 percent indicated intention to vote for Soiseth; 4.5 percent were undecided. The total number of respondents was 198.
Between the results of these surveys, a number of things that possibly attribute to the public sentiment being expressed toward the candidates including the controversial mailer sent in support of Brem to which Soiseth responded via social media, a candidate forum at California State University, Stanislaus, and the FPPC Campaign Finance contributing filings.
Previous Turlock City Council candidate results from the automated telephone survey indicated that while 40.65 of likely voters were still undecided, Incumbent Bill DeHart took 19.31 percent, followed by Matthew Jacob with 14.84 percent, Incumbent Forrest White with 12.80 percent, Sergio Alvarado with 8.74 percent and Donald Babadalir with 3.66 percent. The total number of respondents was 304 registered likely voters; the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
TurlockCityNews.com online polling results for the Turlock City Council races, based on 339 responses, show DeHart leading with 32.4 percent, Babadalir with 25.1 percent, Jacob with 23.0 percent, White with 11.8 percent and Alvarado with 7.7 percent.
With such a large percentage of voters stating that they were undecided in the Oct. 17 telephone call poll, the option of undecided was left off to show which way people are leaning.
Between the surveys, candidates have been endorsed by outside groups as well as continued to garner finances toward their campaign efforts.
TurlockCityNews.com did a series of candidate questionnaires and profiles for local mayoral and council candidates to allow readers the opportunity to learn more about the candidates and make an informed decision in regard to who might represent their interests best.
In the era where “likes” and “shares” can have some correlation with name recognition and popularity among voters, Mayoral candidate Soiseth leads all candidates with 626 likes on his TCN profile/questionnaire, Turlock City Council Candidates DeHart has 585, Babadalir 538, Jacob 93, Alvarado 68, followed by Mayoral candidate Brem and Council candidate White both tied with 8.
While all of the candidates have Facebook pages, two, DeHart and White, are using personal pages; the rest of the candidates have pages set up specifically for their campaigns or as public figures.
Candidates with Facebook “public figure” pages geared toward engaging the community online include Jacob, whose page has 2,023 likes; Soiseth, whose page has 1,433 likes; Brem, whose page has 449 likes; Alvarado, whose page has 113 likes.
Of note, Jacob’s Facebook page, which has the most of any candidate, has increased in likes substantially on three specific days; the first being Aug. 20 with an increase in 535 likes, the second was Sept. 16 with an increase in likes by 250, and this week on Oct. 27 and 28, where the page increased by 622 likes. Pictures are shown below.
Comparatively speaking, Mayoral candidate Soiseth’s Facebook page, over the course of the same period has gained approximately 10 percent of Jacob’s likes, with 61 new likes this week.
Council candidates Babadalir, whose page name was modified for his campaign and has 917 friends, and DeHart who has 728 friends, have used their personal pages to reach out to the community. White has not visibly promoted his campaign on social media or the Internet; White's personal Facebook page has 321 friends, while not showing much campaign activity.
While these numbers are not scientific, there is a perceived trend when it comes to the candidates and the current trends of both races.
It is TurlockCityNews.com’s effort to keep the public informed with a finger on the pulse of what the public wants most.
Again, will these trends translate into similar Election Day results on Nov. 4? We’ll all have to wait and see.
Turlock Mayor/City Council Candidate Questionnaires/Profiles
Results of TurlockCityNews.com November Election Poll
www.facebook.com/MatthewForTurlock – August 20, 2014
www.facebook.com/MatthewForTurlock – September 16, 2014
www.facebook.com/MatthewForTurlock – October 29, 2014